India's Economic Surge: 3rd Largest Economy by 2028, Upper-Middle Income by 2030

Overview: According to a recent SBI Research report, India is projected to become the third-largest economy globally by 2028. The report also estimates that India will transition into an upper-middle-income country by 2030, driven by strong GDP growth, rising per capita income, and robust domestic demand. Structural reforms and increasing global integration are expected to sustain this growth trajectory.

Riyaz

Jan-20-2026

India's Economic Surge: 3rd Largest Economy by 2028, Upper-Middle Income by 2030

A recent report by SBI Research estimates India to be the third-largest in the world in terms of economy by 2028 and elevated into an upper-middle-income country by 2030. This projection indicates a fast rate of growth in the GDP and per capita income, and the projected growth is expected to continue due to the high domestic demand, structural reforms and rising GNI per capita. When India becomes an upper, not a lower-middle-income country, it will be an important milestone in its economic development, as it will be placed side by side with other Asian economies such as China and Indonesia in the world of income ranking and will promptly begin to take its role in the global economy.

India on Track to Become 3rd Largest Economy by 2028

India is set to be the third-largest economy globally by 2028; after a number of major advanced economies, its nominal GDP keeps rising.
Gross national income (GNI) per capita in the country is projected to increase gradually, allowing it to gain membership in the upper-middle income group by the year 2030.
Robust GDP growth, an increased pace of reforms and increasing domestic demand are the bedrock of this boom, as India has risen in the economic ranking by a notch higher than position 14 in 1990 to position 4 by 2025.
In this growth path, India will ensure that its economy reaches 500 billion dollars, or 5 trillion, by 2027-28.
The growth will also lead to a major impact on world influence, investment chances and living standards of its people.

Recently Asked PYQs on Income and Poverty

Exam	Year	Question (Poverty / Per Capita Income)	Answer
SSC Selection Post	2024	In 1989–90, whose per capita income was higher: Karnataka or Bihar?	Karnataka’s per capita income was higher than Bihar’s.
RRB ALP	Various	The total income of the country divided by its total population is termed as?	Per capita income
SSC CGL Tier-I	Various	Which state has the lowest per capita income?	Bihar has the lowest per capita income
SSC CGL Tier-I	2021	If India’s national income is 200 lakh crore and the population is 100 crore, what is the per capita income?	₹2 lakh per person
SSC MTS	2020	Which of the following affects per capita income the most? (a) Population growth (b) Inflation (c) Literacy rate (d) Exports	Population growth
UPSC Prelims	2017	How is per capita income related to economic development?	It measures average income per person, indicating living standards and growth
UPSC Prelims	2019	Official poverty lines are higher in some States than others because:	Price levels vary
UPPCL JE	2022	Approximate percentage of people below the poverty line in India in 2011–12 (Tendulkar method)?	22%
State PCS (UP PCS)	2020	Which methods are used to estimate poverty in India?	Head Count Ratio, Calorie Intake, Household Consumption Expenditure
UPPCS Prelims	2017	In which year did UNO adopt a definition of absolute poverty?	1994
U.P. R.O. / A.R.O.	2013	The basis of poverty estimates in India is:	Household Consumption Expenditure
UPSC Prelims	2012	The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) covers which aspects?	Deprivation in education, health, assets and services
SSC CGL Tier-I	2004–05	Approximate percentage of the population below the poverty line	37.2%
UP PCS	2011–12	Estimated percentage of persons below the poverty line (Tendulkar method)	21.9%
UPPCS Prelims	2011	Official estimates of the Indian population below the poverty line	26%

Conclusion (India to Become 3rd Largest Economy by 2028)

The growth of India to the third-largest economy in 2028 and the upper-middle-income status in 2030 is an indication of booming GDP growth, structural reforms, and rising domestic demand. This economic boom will boost the world impact, investment attraction, elevated living standards, and entrench Indian identity as a top emerging economy in the world.