Is India the World’s Fourth Largest Economy?

By 2025, thanks to the IMF forecast, India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to surpass Japan and make India the fourth-largest economy in the world. The milestone has received notice from the nationals as well as other countries. But by itself, economic size does not completely reflect a country’s actual wealth and progress. Arguing about India’s GDP position highlights the need to thoughtfully review how economies get compared and to focus on income per person, social aspects and general well-being.

Context:

• Although India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to exceed Japan’s GDP by 2025, the metric does not highlight differences in wealth, living and social conditions. 

• By looking at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and several measures of human development, one can better assess both the progress and challenges in India.

Key Points

Detailed Analysis:

• Differences between Nominal GDP and PPP

  • India currently ranks 4th in the world by GDP (in 2024).

  • India has been at the third position globally by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) since 2009.

  • GDP is valued using exchange rates in the market which can be fixed or fluctuating, causing an unclear view.

  • PPP accounts for the cost of living- it gives a clearer picture of how much money people can actually use.

• Major gaps exists in per capita income

  • The per capita GDP in India (2024) is estimated to be around $2,711 which is considered a lower-middle-income country.

  • Countries like Sri Lanka and Bhutan have more income per person than India.

  • Even if a country has large GDP does not mean everyone is wealthy, income is frequently distributed unevenly.

• Employment structure and Informality

  • About 45% of the workforce is still involved in low-productivity agriculture.

  • Only 23.9% of Sri Lankans have formal wage employment which is much lower than the >80% average in developed countries.

  • The fact that the informal sector rules means jobs are less secure, there is no social protection and earnings are likely to fluctuate.

• Human Development and Social Indicators

  • Countries such as Poland, Japan are further ahead in terms of development than India.

    • Life expectancy

    • Infant mortality

    • Education enrollment

  • Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in tertiary education is still quite low.

  • The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) places India in the "Medium HDI” category.

• Lack of Details in Using GDP to Measure Development

  • GDP ignores:

    • Unpaid domestic workers

    • Environmental degradation

    • Income inequality

    • Standard of living

  • highlights may cover up issues and differences in society.

• Political and Narrative Impacts

  • Government narrative highlights GDP rise as a symbol of success.

  • Some experts warn: Relying just on rankings can hide the reality of poverty, inequality and unemployment in different countries.

• Rising demand for Inclusive Growth

  • Actual development means there is growth, equity and dignity.

  • Strategies should start with:

    • Good health & proper nutrition

    • Education quality

    • Skilled employment

    • Social protection Systems

  • Spending on people is key to making growth sustainable and open to all people.

About GDP 

Definition of Gross Domestic Product(GDP)

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the overall value of goods and services made by the country within its borders during a specific time, commonly measured over one financial year.

• It counts all products made by companies, foreign or local, inside the country.

How is GDP  calculated?

• The value of all final products and services produced in a specific country over a given period is called its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Three Methods to Calculate GDP:

• India primarily uses a combination of production and expenditure methods.

Difference Between Nominal GDP and GDP (PPP)

Effects and Implications

Conclusion:

India now ranks highly in the world economy based on nominal GDP, but this is not enough to reflect all aspects of its development. For true development to occur, economic size should go together with increased per capita income, better job quality, better health, improved education and equal social rights. Government leaders ought to promote growth that helps everyone and invest heavily in people to make sure India’s economic growth helps all of its citizens. To reach its aspirations, India must shift its focus past simple GDP numbers.